See below for a breakdown of value plays for tonight’s slate of games on Fan Duel by FantasyPros.
Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) $7,300
Carter has looked great over his last three starts for the Magic. He averaged 40.7 FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) through that stretch (5.6x value), and he’ll take on the NBA’s worst defense against centers this evening. Khem Birch’s impending return may cap his upside, but I suspect that the Magic will trust the hot hand tonight.
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $6,700
Pay close attention to Indiana’s injury report tonight. The Pacers held Brogdon out of last night’s game because of a hip injury, but he was able to practice on Monday. I suspect that the Pacers were just being careful with their star point guard, and if he returns to the lineup tonight, he should easily hit 5x value against a salary this low. He averages 37.3 FDPPG (5.6x value), and the T’Wolves give up the fourth-most FDPPG to point guards.
Devonte’ Graham (CHA) $6,500
The Hornets are now without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. That leaves a lot of slack for their remaining starters to pick up, yet you can get most of them at quite affordable salaries. The Hornets have looked toward the end of this six-game road trip, but they’ve had multiple days off to get some rest, and they’ll take on a depleted Thunder team tonight. I prefer Graham to Terry Rozier ($7,400) simply because of the price differential.
R.J. Barrett (NYK) $6,000
Why is Barrett this cheap? Sure, he’ll play the Celtics in what should be a low-scoring game. But Barrett lit up Boston for 19 points, three assists and 11 rebounds back in January, so we can’t write him off. He may not repeat that performance, but he should easily post enough points to hit value. He averages 29.8 FDPPG (5x value) on the year.
Aleksej Pokusevski (OKC) $5,500
With Isaiah Roby, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Darius Bazley all still out for the Thunder, the team’s reserves will have to keep stepping up. Pokusevski will be a key contributor at power forward, especially since the Hornets surrender the most FDPPG to the position. He has averaged 27.4 FDPPG (5x value) over his last four outings.
P.J. Washington (CHA) $5,200
Washington is my favorite player to target in Charlotte’s offense. The Thunder give up the second-most FDPPG to power forwards, and Washington’s salary reflects an overreaction to his road-trip slump. Also, the Thunder allow the second-most FDPPG to opposing power forwards. Look for him to rebound after some time off.
Josh Richardson (DAL) $5,000
The Houston Rockets allow the most FDPPG to shooting guards, where Richardson spends 82% of his minutes despite his small forward designation. Richardson hit 5x value against this price in his last appearance, and this is the perfect opponent for him to start building some momentum.
Joe Harris (BKN) $5,000
I’ll admit that the logic behind this pick is very simple: made 3s. The Pelicans allow the most of them per game (15.1), and Harris averages 3.2 made 3s per game. Kevin Durant should make his return tonight, but since James Harden will have to miss time with a hamstring injury, Harris should still have plenty of chances to hit value.
Goga Bitadze (IND) $3,900
Bitadze, Indiana’s backup center, might be chalk if Turner gets ruled out. The second-year pro has averaged 7.8 points, 1.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game over his last eight appearances. He played just 12.8 minutes per game through that stretch. At this price, Bitadze should easily surpass 5x value should Turner have to miss time.
Ish Smith (WAS) $3,500
Smith is back! He played 20-plus minutes in his first two games back for the Wizards (of course, Bradley Beal has been out), but he should be in line for a stable rotational role behind even if they both play; he had been averaging 20.6 minutes per game before his injury. He should easily clear 5x value with an average share of minutes tonight, as the Magic give up the second-most FDPPG to point guards.